DC Update: Shutdown Status – Who Wants What, When Benefits End

Source: Jen Cash, October 27, 2025

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and represents publicly available information about federal budget processes. The views expressed are based on news reports and do not represent the position of any state agency or advocate for specific legislative outcomes.

BREAKING: Major Developments Today (October 27)

Thune Backs Away from “Rifle-Shot” Strategy

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is now skeptical about forcing separate votes on military pay and air traffic controller pay this week, representing a significant retreat from his planned pressure campaign against Democrats. Thune told reporters Monday he wants to hear from GOP rank-and-file before committing to the “rifle-shot” bills.

Why this matters: These narrow bills were the GOP’s best strategy to peel off Democratic votes. Thune’s hesitation suggests either internal Republican resistance or recognition the strategy won’t work.

Trump in Japan While Shutdown Enters Week Four

President Trump is on his second overseas trip since the shutdown began, currently in Japan with a high-profile meeting scheduled with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday.

Congressional reaction: Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) called it “outrageous” that Trump would take another foreign trip with government shut down: “Stay in America. Put America first. Sit down with us and work this out.”

Local Media Breakthrough Creates Hometown Pressure

The SNAP crisis is now dominating local front pages, including the Shreveport Times – Speaker Johnson’s hometown paper – with the headline “SNAP benefits to stop in Nov.”

Other major headlines:

NY Daily News: “Nearly 3 million New Yorkers face losing SNAP benefits”
Independent Mail (Anderson County, S.C.): “Starving SNAP: Food pantries brace for more families”
The Pueblo (Colo.) Chieftain: “SNAP benefits for 40,000 Puebloans put on hold”

Part 1: The Calendar – When Benefits Actually Stop

November 1, 2025: SNAP Benefits End (5 Days Away)

Who’s affected: 42 million Americans (1 in 8 U.S. residents)
Average benefit: $187/month ($6/day)
What’s happening: USDA told states October 10 there are “insufficient funds to pay full November SNAP benefits” if shutdown continues
State responses: 47 states have issued warnings that November benefits will not be distributed

USDA’s official statement (posted Sunday): “Senate Democrats have now voted 12 times to not fund the food stamp program, also known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Bottom line, the well has run dry. At this time, there will be no benefits issued November 01.”

Trump’s conflicting statement: When asked Friday whether he would direct USDA to fund food stamps next month, Trump said: “Yeah, everybody is going to be in good shape, yep.” He provided no additional details.

The funding question: USDA has approximately $6 billion in contingency reserves from FY 2024-2025 appropriations. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities says this is legally required to be used for November benefits, but the administration is refusing to use it.

Additional context: New SNAP work requirements from the reconciliation bill also take effect November 1, creating what advocates call a “double whammy” – benefits potentially cut off the same day stricter eligibility rules begin.

Notable state action: Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia declared a state of emergency last week and is using state surplus funds to cover SNAP for 850,000 Virginians, despite USDA warning states won’t be reimbursed. He’s the first GOP governor to break ranks.

December 31, 2025: ACA Enhanced Premium Subsidies Expire

Who’s affected: 22.4 million Americans receiving enhanced premium tax credits (92% of ACA marketplace enrollees)
Average impact: Premium payments expected to increase 114% – from $888/year in 2025 to $1,904/year in 2026
Worst affected: People ages 50-64 with incomes above 400% of federal poverty level (~$63,000 individual, ~$129,000 family of four)

Example impacts (from Kaiser Family Foundation analysis):

Family of four, $45,000 income: $0 premium in 2025 → $1,607/year in 2026
60-year-old couple, $85,000 income: 8.5% of income in 2025 → $22,600/year in 2026 (about 25% of income)

Timeline pressure: Open enrollment for 2026 coverage begins November 1. Insurance commissioners warn rates need to be finalized before enrollment starts – if Congress extends subsidies in December, it may be too late for insurers to adjust 2026 rates.

Congressional Budget Office projection: 4 million people will become uninsured in the next few years if enhanced subsidies expire. An additional 2.2 million would lose coverage in 2026 alone.

White House position hardening: White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair told Punchbowl News on Day 24 that the administration has zero interest in extending ACA subsidies, dismissing them as “subsidies to insurance companies.” Blair indicated Trump is “nowhere close to folding or beginning negotiations with Democrats.”

This Week: Military Payroll and Air Traffic Controllers at Risk

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that if the shutdown continues, the U.S. won’t be able to pay military personnel this week.

Partial solution: The Trump administration accepted a $130 million gift from a Trump donor to help pay the troops, although Punchbowl News reports this is “only a fraction of what’s needed.”

Air traffic controllers: Already dealing with staffing shortages leading to delays at major hubs, controllers will miss their paycheck this week.

New: No October Inflation Report – First Time in History

The White House announced Monday that there will be NO October inflation report because Bureau of Labor Statistics surveyors cannot deploy during the shutdown.

Economic impact: This deprives the Federal Reserve, markets, and policymakers of critical data for economic decisions, potentially risking “economic calamity” according to the White House statement.

Part 2: The Positions – Who’s Asking for What

Breaking Development: AFGE Calls for Clean CR (October 27)

The American Federation of Government Employees, representing 820,000 federal workers, issued a statement Monday calling on Congress to pass a clean continuing resolution immediately.

AFGE President Everett Kelley’s statement:

“Both political parties have made their point, and still there is no clear end in sight”
“It’s time to pass a clean continuing resolution and end this shutdown today. No half measures, and no gamesmanship”
“Put every single federal worker back on the job with full back pay — today”

Why this matters: AFGE gave 100% of its 2024 political donations to Democrats. The union’s call for Democrats to abandon their current negotiating position represents a significant pressure point.

Worker situation: Federal employees missed their second full paycheck Friday (October 24). Many report using food banks and taking temporary jobs to cover expenses.

Humanitarian response: World Central Kitchen, Chef José Andrés’ humanitarian organization, is now distributing meals to federal workers in Washington DC – treating the nation’s capital like a disaster zone. More than 1,100 meals were distributed Monday.

Current Senate Vote Count

Republicans supporting the House-passed clean CR: 49 senators (need 60 to pass)

Democrats/Independents supporting the clean CR: 3 senators

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA)
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)
Sen. Angus King (I-ME)

Votes needed: 5 additional Democratic senators must cross party lines to reach the 60-vote threshold

Senate track record: The clean CR has failed 12 times in Senate votes as of October 26.

What Each Side Is Demanding

House Republicans (passed September 19):

Clean continuing resolution through November 21, 2025
Maintains current FY 2025 funding levels
No additional provisions
No ACA subsidy extension

Senate Democrats:

Will not vote for CR without ACA premium subsidy extension
Argue December is too late due to open enrollment starting November 1
Express skepticism about Republican willingness to negotiate in December
Point to administration’s ongoing $412 billion in blocked funds as evidence of bad faith

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s floor statement Monday: President Trump is “manufacturing a SNAP crisis instead of working with the Democrats” to end the shutdown. “The very same administration that sent $40 billion to Argentina at the drop of a hat, to help Trump’s MAGA ally, is now telling hungry families in America they can’t have nutrition funding.”

Trump Administration:

Supports House-passed clean CR
Says health care negotiations should happen “in the context of an open government” (per VP Vance)
Has not committed to ACA subsidy extension
USDA blaming Democrats for SNAP funding lapse

Senate Majority Leader Thune’s floor statement Monday: “Democrats once passionately opposed shutdown, or so they said, in large part because of the impact they would have on American citizens and American workers. Now, government workers and every other American have become nothing more than pawns in the Democrats’ political games.”

Congressional Dysfunction Reaches Historic Levels

From Punchbowl News’ assessment:

House hasn’t voted since September 19 – that’s 38 days with zero legislative action
Senate spinning its wheels on nominations and doomed-to-fail funding votes
Committee work completely stopped in the House
Speaker Johnson refuses to swear in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ), who was elected more than a month ago

Senate Chaplain Barry Black’s pointed invocation Monday: “When our children and grandchildren want to know what we were doing in the 119th Congress, during the famous shutdown, may we not have to give these answers: ‘I helped set a new record for keeping the government closed. I failed to appeal to the better angels of my nature.'”

Black concluded: “Lord, remind our lawmakers that no gold medals are given for breaking shutdown records. But a crown of righteousness is given to those who take care of the lost, last and least.”

Republican Breaking Ranks: Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA)

Rep. Kevin Kiley of California is the only House member still showing up to work despite Speaker Johnson sending everyone home 38 days ago.

His criticism to NPR Monday: “I’m getting angry at this point” as constituents lose SNAP benefits.

Bold proposal: Kiley suggested eliminating the Senate filibuster as one way to end the impasse – a highly unusual position for a Republican.

District impact: Kiley represents California’s 3rd District, which includes Yosemite and Death Valley National Parks, both shuttered during the funding lapse.

No White House Leadership Meeting Since September 29

For context, the last face-to-face meeting between Trump and congressional leaders occurred on September 29 – the day before the shutdown began.

That meeting outcome:

No agreement reached
Both sides remained “dug in” on their positions
VP Vance: “I think we’re headed to a shutdown”
Schumer: “Very large differences” between the two sides
Shutdown began approximately 15 hours later at 12:01am October 1

Since then: No additional White House meetings between Trump and congressional leadership have been scheduled or held as of October 27. Trump has instead embarked on two overseas trips.

Part 3: What Makes This Shutdown Different

The Mass Layoff Threat

Unlike traditional shutdowns with temporary “furloughs” and guaranteed back pay, the Trump administration’s September 28 OMB memo directed agencies to implement permanent layoffs during the shutdown for employees whose programs aren’t “consistent with the president’s priorities.”

Federal employee reports:

Treasury Department: Leadership treating directive “as political theater”
Agriculture Department: Employees told “layoffs would occur on Oct. 1”
Widespread anxiety: Workers describe themselves as “terrified”

Legal challenge: A federal judge in San Francisco temporarily blocked planned termination of approximately 4,100 probationary federal employees, ruling the firings were likely unlawful.

Existing Federal Disruption: $412 Billion Already Blocked

Democratic appropriators documented $412 billion in congressionally appropriated funds already blocked, frozen, or terminated before the shutdown even started:

$96.7 billion in FEMA grants and disaster programs
$42.5 billion in broadband deployment (BEAD program)
$39.7 billion in transportation infrastructure grants
$8.9 billion in NIH medical research grants terminated
$700 million in National Science Foundation grants cancelled

Multiple Government Accountability Office rulings confirm these actions violate the 1974 Impoundment Control Act.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) perspective: “It’s hard to calculate how much worse that ‘worst’ will be than what they’re doing right now.” With $412 billion already blocked, some Democrats question whether a shutdown makes things significantly worse.

Economic Damage Mounting

By Day 20, the shutdown was causing an estimated $7 billion per week in economic damage, with total economic losses reaching $140 billion through Day 20, according to economic analyses cited by multiple sources.

This Week’s Critical Timeline

Monday, October 27 (Today):

AFGE issues call for clean CR
Senate convenes at 3pm – Thune and Schumer trade blame on Senate floor
Thune indicates he won’t push “rifle-shot” bills this week
Senate Chaplain delivers pointed invocation
Day 27 of shutdown

Tuesday, October 28:

Senate votes on House-passed clean CR (expected to fail again without 5 additional Democratic votes)
4 days until SNAP benefits scheduled to stop

Wednesday, October 29:

3 days until SNAP benefits end

Thursday, October 30:

Trump meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea
2 days until SNAP benefits end

Friday, November 1:

SNAP benefits scheduled to end for 42 million Americans
ACA open enrollment begins
New SNAP work requirements take effect

Mid-November:

Treasury Department can’t pay military if shutdown continues

December 31:

ACA enhanced premium subsidies expire

Bottom Line: Punchbowl News Assessment

“Yet the political calculus is slowly changing. The fallout from the shutdown is growing worse by the day. The risk for Democrats is that these impacts begin to overshadow the health-care issues they’re trying to fix. For the GOP, it looks like they can’t govern.“

The shutdown has entered a new phase with four major developments:

AFGE’s unprecedented call for Democrats to pass a clean CR creates new political pressure, given the union’s historic Democratic support
Multiple benefit cliffs approaching – SNAP (Nov 1), military pay (this week), and ACA subsidies (Dec 31) – create cascading deadlines with direct constituent impact
Trust breakdown between parties over administration’s willingness to negotiate, evidenced by $412B in already-blocked funds and lack of concrete ACA commitments
Local media breakthrough – SNAP crisis dominating hometown newspapers, including Speaker Johnson’s local paper, creating constituency pressure that may exceed DC political calculations

The next 72 hours will determine whether AFGE’s pressure, combined with imminent SNAP cutoff and local media coverage, breaks the Senate deadlock. With only 3 of 8 needed Democratic votes secured, and Thune backing away from his pressure strategy, passage remains highly uncertain.

Key Resources:

Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not advocate for any particular legislative position or outcome. The views expressed are based on publicly available information and do not represent the position of any state agency. No state resources were used in its creation or distribution.