Latest WA Election Analysis

By CleanTech Alliance lobbyist Brad Boswell 

New election results have been posted as of this evening. At this point statewide approximately 1.4 million ballots have been counted. The Secretary of State’s office reports that there are an additional 500,000 ballots to count. At this point voter turnout is at 36.53% and will likely be under 50% for the general. This extremely low voter turnout for a general election.  Below are updated results based on tonight’s reports. We will continue to monitor new numbers in the days to come but at this time it appears that the trends are holding.

This has been an unusual election year in Washington State with no U.S. Senate or Governors race and very little federal attention or money spent.  At the top of the ticket are two Gun Control Initiatives (I-591 & I-594) and an education class size Initiative funded by the state teachers union (I-1351).  Interestingly as of this writing, I-1351 is failing by a very slim margin (No-50.41%- Yes -49.59%). This trend has not changed much since last night.

Congressional Races (10 Races)

There is only one race even remotely in play from a partisan perspective is the 1st District between incumbent Democrat Susan DelBene and Republican challenger Pedro Celis.  At this point Congressman DelBene is comfortably in the lead at (54.71%) and we expect her to stay ahead.  The only other race of any interest is the 4th Congressional.  (Central Washington)   Doc Hastings (R) is retiring in this very Republican district.  Clint Didier (R) has faced off against former State Rep. Dan Newhouse (R).  Early returns show Newhouse in the lead (51.01%) and we expect Newhouse will ultimately win this race.

 

State Senate  (Majority Coalition Caucus [MCC] currently controls the Senate 2D's/24R's v. 23 D's) 

The Washington State Senate is currently controlled by a coalition of conservative Democrats and Republicans called the Majority Coalition Caucus (MCC). There are 7 races that will determine control of the Senate and millions of dollars have been spent on both sides in these races.  At this point the returns still indicate that the MCC will retain control of the Senate. The following are the current numbers in the relevant Senate seats.

6th District

Sen. Michael Baumgartner (R) – 57.02%

Rich Cowan (D) – 42.98%

26th District

Sen. Jan Angel (R) – 58.46%

Judy Arbogast (D) – 41.54%

28th District

Sen. Steve O’Ban (R) 54.78%

Tami Green (D) – 45.22%

30th District (Open Seat)

Mark Miloscia (R) – 56.28%

Shari Song (D) – 43.72%

35th District

Sen. Tim Sheldon (D) – 54.41%

Irene Bowling (D) – 45.59%

42nd District

Sen. Doug Ericksen (R) – 58.92%

Seth Fleetwood (D) – 41.08%

 44th District

Sen. Steve Hobbs (D) 55.87%

Jim Kellett (R) 44.13%

45th District

Sen. Andy Hill (R) – 52.83%

Matt Isenhower (D) – 47.17%

One additional interesting race is in the 31st District, where incumbent Sen. Pam Roach (R) has faced a significant challenge from former Rep. Kathy Dahlquist (R). Both are Republican and this race will not impact the balance of power in the Senate.

31st District

Sen. Pam Roach (R) – 52.96%

Cathy Dahlquist (R) – 47.04%

House of Representatives — (55D's to 43R's)

We expect the D's to retain control of the House.  That said, House Republicans appear to be fairing better than expected. Some races are still too close to call, but this point Republicans will gain two to four seats, which significantly narrows the margin in the House. The following are the relevant House races and where they stand at this point.

17th District

Lynda Wilson (R) – 51.26%

Rep. Stonier (D) – 48.74%

25th District 

Rep. Morrell (D) – 46.15%

Melanie Stambaugh (R) – 53.85%

26th District

Former Sen. Schlicher (D) – 46.7%

Rep. Young (R) – 53.3%

26th District

Rep. Larry Seaquist (D) – 49.69%

Michelle Caldier (R) – 50.31%

28th District (open)

Paul Wageman (R) – 49.93%

Christine Kilduff (D) – 50.07

 

35 District 

Rep. Haigh (D) – 50.15%

Dan Griffey (R) – 49.85%

44th District (Open)

Harmsworth (R) – 52.63%

Wilson (D) – 47.37%

  Brad Boswell Boswell Consulting

206-300-6270

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